周波：中印要从僵局中向前跨进，应回头看看
【文/观察者网专栏作者 周波】
一年前，中印戎行在中印边境区域的加勒万河谷产生丧命打斗，形成20名印度战士和4名我国武士逝世，其阴霾至今未散。
当北京提出协助疫情暴虐的印度时，遭到了冷遇。印度的积怨充分说明了两国联络冷若冰霜的现状。印度外长苏杰生曾描述这种联络遭到了“深深的不坚定”。
新德里街头的抗疫宣传画（图片来历：视觉我国）
在与印度学者的几回商洽中，我十分惊奇地发现他们简直一起以为，是我国预谋在先，挑起了加勒万的抵触。这是不行能的。假如我国不得不在美国挑起的大国竞赛中同美国竞赛，为什么要忽然涣散精力，转而对立印度呢？
由于边境区域的实践控制线（LAC）没有划定，因而中印戎行坚持的景象并不稀有。依照我国的说法，自2020年4月以来，印度戎行不管中方的反对，单方面开端在加勒万河谷建筑路途和桥梁。
这次事情让人感到压抑，由于它简直打破了两国之间长达数十年的一个默契，即不运用武力。印度总理莫迪在2017年表明，“在曩昔的40年里，两边没有由于边界争端向对方开过一枪”。可是在加勒万抵触中，即便两边都没有开枪，整个气氛也突然变冷。
中印边界争端的复杂性令人望而生畏。两边乃至对边界限的长度都观点纷歧。我国以为边界限是2000公里，而印度以为是3488公里。依照新德里的说法，巴基斯坦于1963年不合法将巴控克什米尔的5180平方公里的印度疆域割让给我国。我国和印度都坚持以为加勒万河谷是自己的疆域。
更糟糕的是，边境实践控制线从来没有得到核实。两国政府1993年签署的一项协议里规则，“必要时，两边将在对实践控制线有不同知道的局部区域一起核定实践控制线的方向”。可是什么时候才是“必要“的呢？
我国和印度的做法好像不行谐和。中方倾向于自上而下的方法，基本上便是在两边互谅互让的基础上进行土地交流，而印度坚持自下而上的方法，将核实实践控制线作为首选。
北京置疑，一旦实践控制线的走向承认之后，印度就会把它作为事实上的边界限，并回绝进一步的商洽。这种置疑并非毫无根据，印度一向回绝任何关于“阿鲁纳恰尔邦”的位置的商洽。中方将所谓的“阿鲁纳恰尔邦”视为我国藏南区域的一部分，指出达旺便是六世达赖的出生地。
怎么防备争端演变为抵触? 行进之道是回首往事。1993年到2013年之间，我国和印度在政府和戎行层面就树立信赖方法达成了四项协议，这比我国与其他任何国家签署的两边信赖方法协议都要多。
中印边境，一名印度战士与我国战士在放哨（图片来历：视觉我国）
这些信赖方法内容详细，令人形象深入：两边都重申，将把边境实践控制线两边各自的兵力减少或许限制至最低规划；首要的兵器，比方坦克、步卒作战车、大口径火炮、地地导弹、地空导弹将被减少；两边应该防止在实践控制线邻近举办超越一个师以上规划的大规划军事演习；两边的作战飞机不可以飞入实践控制线10公里以内。
要是这些方法都被履行就好了! 事实上, 两边都在加强在该区域的军事存在，这在危机之后并不古怪，可是当局势降温时，两国将不得不考虑怎么尽量使边境区域坚持平和与安定。
一个有利的方法便是从头康复联合工作小组，并授权联合工作小组下面的交际和军事专家找出信赖方法协议里比较简单履行的部分。一起，还可以引入新的树立信赖方法机制。在事情产生后，两边举办了至少11轮军长级接见会面，缓解了局势。这种高档军官在前哨的定时接见会面应该坚持下去。
两边还应考虑树立及时交流联络的热线。我国同俄罗斯、美国、韩国和越南都有热线，据报道我国和日本也在考虑树立热线。印度和巴基斯坦常常运用热线。中印既然是近邻，还有疆域争端，两国足有理由树立相似的热线。
或许两边可以迈出的最斗胆一步，是在实践控制线最风险的地段树立缓冲区。这并不影响各自对边界问题的态度，可是这是两边之间脱离触摸、防止抵触的最有用的方法。两边都赞同在对边境实践控制线了解不一起的区域巡查时不彼此跟随。树立缓冲区是往前迈出一大步，并且也有或许。在两边部队一起撤出班公湖邻近的山地后，两边事实上现已树立了一个缓冲区。
假如北京和新德里在21世纪依然被一个殖民者留下的争端所劫持就真的可笑了，特别是由于除了边界争端之外，两边联络并没有杰出的问题。印度人讲“Hindi Chini bhai bhai”（印地语，即“印度人民和我国人民是兄弟”）的日子一去不复返了，可是中印无论怎么不能变成敌人。边界问题不应该成为一个永久的咒骂，两个核大国之间连一场常规战争都不应该产生。
（以下为2021年6月15日南华早报原文）
China and India should look back to move forward on border impasse
One year has passed since a deadly brawl between Chinese and Indian troops in the Galwan Valley in the China-Indian border areas, which resulted in the death of 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese troops. The aftermath is still being felt today.
Beijing was given the cold shoulder when it o!ered to help pandemic-devastated India. Such resentment speaks volumes of the frosty relationship, which was described by Indian Minister of External A!airs S. Jaishankar as “profoundly disturbed”.
In a few meetings with Indian scholars, I was surprised to learn how they almost invariably believed that the Galwan clash was the result of a planned attack by China. This is impossible. If China has to compete in an America-initiated great power competition, why would it suddenly divert its attention and strength away from that to take on India?
Since the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the border areas is not demarcated, it is not rare for face-offs between Chinese and Indian troops. According to the Chinese, Indian troops started to unilaterally build roads and bridges in the valley in April 2020, despite Chinese protests.
The deadly incident was dreadful in that it came closest to breaking a decades-old tacit agreement between the two countries not to use force. “In the last 40 years, not a single bullet has been fired because of [the border dispute],” Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in 2017. But the Galwan clash, even though no bullet was fired, has changed the whole atmosphere.
The complexity of the China-India border dispute is daunting. Even the length of the border is not necessarily agreed on. China believes it is 2,000km long, while India believes it is 3,488km. According to New Delhi, Pakistan illegally ceded 5,180 sq km of Indian territory in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir to China in 1963. Both China and India maintained that the valley is their own territory.
To makes things worse, the LAC is not verified. A 1993 agreement between the two governments stipulates that “when necessary, the two sides jointly check and determine the segments of the Line of Actual Control where they have different views as to its alignment”. But when is it necessary?
The approaches of China and India seem irreconcilable. China prefers a top-down approach, which is basically a land swap based on mutual accommodation, while India insists on a bottom-up approach of verifying the LAC as the priority.
Beijing suspects that, once the alignment of the LAC is verified, India would take it as a de facto border and refuse further negotiations. Such suspicion is not entirely groundless. India has refused any talks on the position of Arunachal Pradesh, which China holds as part of southern Tibet, citing the reason that Tawang is the birthplace of the 6th Dalai Lama.
How to prevent the dispute from spilling over into a conflict? The way forward is to look
back. Between 1993 and 2013, China and India reached four agreements on confidence-building measures at governmental and military levels. This is more than any bilateral agreements China has signed with other countries.
And they are substantive, too, which is impressive. Both rea"rm that they shall reduce or limit their respective military forces along the LAC to minimum levels; major categories of armaments such as combat tanks, infantry combat vehicles, large-calibre guns, surface-to-surface missiles and surface- to-air missiles are to be reduced; large-scale military exercises involving more than one division in the proximity of the LAC shall be avoided; and combat aircraft should not fly within 10km of the LAC.
If only these measures were being implemented. In fact, both sides are strengthening their military presence in the region. This is no surprise in the wake of a crisis. But when the situation cools down, both countries will have to think about how they can best make the border areas peaceful and tranquil.
One way is to resume the joint working group and ask the diplomatic and military experts working under it to find the low-hanging fruits in the confidence-building agreements. New confidence- building measures could also be ushered in. In the wake of the incident, at least 11 rounds of corps- commander-level talks were held, which helped to de-escalate the situation. Such regular meetings of front-line senior military officers should be maintained.
Both sides should also consider establishing hotlines for real-time communication. China has military hotlines with Russia, the United States, South Korea and Vietnam. Reportedly, China and Japan are considering establishing one as well. India often uses its hotline with Pakistan. There is no reason the two immediate neighbours with territorial disputes should not have similar instruments.
Perhaps the boldest step might be to establish buffer zones in the most dangerous areas along the LAC. Without prejudicing their respective positions on the boundary question, this is the most effective way to disengage and prevent conflict. Both sides agree they shall not follow or tail patrols of the other side in areas where there is no common understanding of the LAC.
Building buffer zones is a step further. And it is possible, too. From the mountains around Pangong Lake, a de facto buffer zone has already been established after the mutual withdrawal of troops.
It is ridiculous if, in the 21st century, Beijing and New Delhi are still hijacked by a dispute that is a colonial remnant, not least because apart from this dispute, they have no outstanding problems with each other.
Gone are the days when India said “Hindi Chini bhai bhai”, which means, in Hindi, “Indians and Chinese are brothers”. But China and India have every reason not to become foes. The border issue should not be a perennial curse. The two nuclear neighbours can ill-afford even a conventional war.
Senior Colonel Zhou Bo (ret) is a senior fellow at the Centre for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University and a China Forum expert
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